Arsenal out to win one for Ramsey

Soccer Betting Lines

03/05/2010 - London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The injury suffered by Arsenal midfielder Aaron Ramsey is still fresh in the mind of many of his teammates, who are getting set to host Burnley at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday.

The promising teenager had his season cut short last weekend when he suffered a horrific broken leg against Stoke City after a late challenge from Ryan Shawcross, and now the rest of the Gunners are using the incident as motivation.

"After the Stoke game we didn't see Aaron because he went straight to the hospital," midfielder Emmanuel Eboue told the league's official website. "I am so, so disappointed about what happened.

"Sometimes in football these things happen but we want always to play for him.

"Burnley is a very difficult game for us, we know that. But we will try our best to win it for Aaron Ramsey."

In addition to winning the game for Ramsey, a victory would also pull Arsenal level on 61 points with league-leaders Chelsea, who will be in action in the FA Cup this weekend.

Arsenal has won three straight games in the league since losing back-to-back contests to Manchester United and Chelsea, and with a favorable schedule the rest of the way, Arsene Wenger's side is confident that they can provide a serious challenge for the title.

Burnley is hoping to just survive relegation over the remainder of the season as the club sits in 19th place, but just one point from safety.

A disappointing home loss to last-placed Portsmouth last time out didn't help the cause, and making matters even worse is the fact that Saturday's game is away from Turf Moor, where the club has earned just one point from 14 away contests.

However, Burnley's Leon Cort feels that his side is capable of taking points away from its trip to London if they go into the match with the belief that they can do it.

"The whole country believes we're going to go there and get wiped clean," Cort told the club's official website. "But if we go there and believe, do what we can do and stay strong as a team, I believe we can cause an upset.

"You can't go there and roll over because they will punish you. Obviously it's going to be a very tough game and our away form isn't great, but we have to go there and keep believing."

With many other Premiership clubs taking part in FA Cup play this weekend, there are only three other matches on the fixture list.

One features second-placed Manchester United visiting Molineux Stadium to face relegation-battling Wolverhampton, with United moving to the top of the league with a win, while bottom-half sides West Ham and Bolton square off at Upton Park, and Everton goes for its third win in four games when they entertain Hull City on Sunday.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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